After updating its all-time high in October 2025, when Bitcoin reached $126,000, the cryptocurrency market moved into a decline. By March 2026, Bitcoin had lost 43% from its peak values. Moreover, some traditional assets even outperformed it in terms of returns: in 2025 — gold and silver, and in 2026 — oil.
Why Bitcoin is still unable to hold above $75,000 and what could restore its upward momentum — let’s examine the main reasons.
Macroeconomics as the main driver
U.S. macroeconomic indicators traditionally have a strong impact on the cryptocurrency market and largely determine the direction of digital assets. One of the most important benchmarks for investors is the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).
The last time the Fed cut its key interest rate* was in December 2026 — to 3.75 basis points. It is precisely the easing of monetary policy that often becomes the condition that helps Bitcoin grow. As early as the following month after that decision, BTC once again approached the $100,000 level.
* The key interest rate is the central bank’s interest rate at which it lends money to commercial banks or accepts deposits from them. It affects borrowing costs, deposit yields, inflation, and overall economic activity.
Macroeconomic data includes the main indicators of the state of the economy: inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, the consumer price index*, business activity, production volumes, and consumption. Based on this data, the market tries to understand whether the Fed will tighten financial policy or, on the contrary, begin to ease it.
* GDP (gross domestic product) is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country over a certain period. It is one of the main indicators of the size and condition of an economy.
* The consumer price index is an indicator that reflects how prices for goods and services purchased by the population change. It is most often used to assess inflation.
When the key interest rate is reduced, money becomes more accessible, liquidity in the system increases, and investor interest in risk assets strengthens. That is why improving macroeconomic conditions is often viewed as one of the key factors behind Bitcoin’s growth.
At the same time, not only the actual key rate figures matter, but also market participants’ expectations. For Bitcoin, it is important not just to have good data, but a hint that financial conditions will become easier in the coming months.
Liquidity growth
Glassnode analysts believe that without an increase in liquidity, it is difficult to count on sustainable Bitcoin growth. After the political and economic instability of late 2025 to early 2026, the crypto market noticeably declined: the sector’s capitalization fell by more than 40%.
The decline in liquidity affected not only retail traders, but also major players. This is especially noticeable in crypto funds: over the past three months, net outflows from them have exceeded $230 million. The return of institutional capital could become an important signal for the recovery of the crypto market.
An additional indicator is the share of investors who are at a loss. According to Glassnode, the number of Bitcoin holders with negative returns has risen to 22%. This is comparable to the 2022 level, when Bitcoin was updating two-year lows.
At the same time, in March 2026, analysts recorded the transfer of 32,000 BTC to cold wallets*. Such a move usually means that the owners do not intend to sell the coins anytime soon and are betting on long-term storage.
* Cold wallets are devices for storing cryptocurrency that are not constantly connected to the internet. Their main advantage is that they are much better protected against online hacks, viruses, and data theft. That is why cold wallets are most often used for the long-term storage of large amounts of cryptocurrency, when the owner does not plan to conduct transactions regularly.
The fewer bitcoins remain on exchanges, the weaker the potential selling pressure from cryptocurrency sellers. And a reduction in the volume of available supply is another important factor that could support Bitcoin’s price in the medium term.
Declining hype around Artificial Intelligence
Experts cite the active flow of capital into the artificial intelligence sector as one of the reasons slowing Bitcoin’s growth. Against the backdrop of rapid AI development, some investors switched from cryptocurrencies to shares of tech companies, chip manufacturers, graphics card makers, memory producers, and other equipment suppliers for data centers.
This process affects not only financial markets, but also mining. Due to falling profitability in Bitcoin mining, some miners are selling off their reserves and redirecting computing power to servicing AI projects, since that brings in more profit.
In such a situation, only a cooling of interest in the AI segment could help Bitcoin. When attention and capital partially return from the tech sector to cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin’s position may strengthen noticeably.
Easing geopolitical tensions
Bitcoin’s dynamics are also strongly influenced by international conflicts and political decisions. Additional trade tariffs introduced by Donald Trump in October 2025, as well as the conflict with Iran in February 2026, put substantial pressure on the market.
The situation was worsened by rising oil prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the strengthening of the dollar. Both of these factors usually work against Bitcoin. If oil rises above $80 per barrel*, this could accelerate inflation and force the Fed to maintain a tight monetary policy. In such an environment, capital more often flows out of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
* A barrel is a standard unit of measurement for the volume of oil and some other liquids in the global commodities market. In the oil industry, one barrel equals 159 liters. Global oil prices, as well as production, export, and consumption volumes, are usually quoted in barrels.
But as soon as signs of de-escalation appear, market sentiment changes. This is exactly what happened in late February to early March 2026, when Bitcoin began to recover amid expectations of possible negotiations between the United States and Iran.
Limited supply
Another critically important factor behind Bitcoin’s growth is supply scarcity while demand remains intact. This is ensured by the halving (the reduction by half of miners’ rewards), which is built into the BTC protocol. This mechanism cuts miners’ rewards in half every four years, thereby reducing the volume of new issuance.
Historically, after each halving (the reduction by half of miners’ rewards), Bitcoin reached new highs after some time. After the 2020 event, Bitcoin’s price rose to $69,000, and after the 2024 halving (the reduction by half of miners’ rewards) — to $126,000.
If demand for Bitcoin remains stable or begins to strengthen under conditions of limited supply, the market will get a classic imbalance: there are fewer coins, while more people want to buy them. In such a situation, even a moderate increase in buying activity can sharply push Bitcoin’s price upward.
Conclusion
For Bitcoin to enter a new growth phase, it needs not just one, but several factors to align at once. Among them are a softer Fed policy, liquidity recovery, the return of institutional capital, reduced tension in global politics, declining interest in the AI sector, and the continuing reduction of BTC supply.
It is the combination of these conditions that can create the foundation for the return of a sustainable upward trend. For now, however, the crypto market remains sensitive to external risks, while Bitcoin itself is still waiting for a new powerful driver.