Over the past three months, the price of BTC has fallen by more than 20%, dropping to the level of $90,800. At the same time, its market capitalization has declined by 37% from its all-time high — from $2.48 trillion to $1.81 trillion. Does this mean the end of the bull cycle*, or is the market preparing for a new stage of growth?
* A bull cycle is a phase of the market cycle characterized by steady price growth, increased investment optimism, and demand prevailing over supply. During a bull cycle, market participants expect further price appreciation, which stimulates capital inflows and increased trading activity.
What will happen to Bitcoin in the near term?
Despite pressure from macroeconomic factors and the overall cooling of the crypto market, some analysts maintain a positive outlook on BTC. In their view, the current correction* is temporary, and as early as spring 2026 Bitcoin may once again enter a phase of sustained growth.
* A correction is a short-term decline in an asset’s price following a period of growth, caused by profit-taking, shifts in investor sentiment, or external factors, while the overall upward market trend remains intact.
Among the key drivers of Bitcoin’s potential growth, experts highlight:
- Institutional demand. The launch and development of Bitcoin ETFs* have significantly simplified access to the asset for funds and large investors, while simultaneously reducing regulatory risks.
- Macroeconomic conditions. A potential easing of the Federal Reserve’s policy and a weakening of the dollar amid economic turbulence could work in favor of crypto assets.
- Technological development. Scaling of the Bitcoin network and the growth of second-layer payment solutions*, including the Lightning Network, increase Bitcoin’s practical utility.
* Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure to it through traditional stock markets without the need to directly own the cryptocurrency.
* Second-layer (Layer 2) solutions are technologies built on top of the main blockchain, designed to increase throughput, transaction speed, and reduce fees without changing the base protocol of the network.
According to a number of forecasts, in the medium term the price of BTC could reach the range of $150,000–250,000. For example, Tom Lee of Fundstrat expects growth to $200,000–250,000 by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan analysts allow for a move toward $170,000 within the next 6–12 months.
At the same time, a negative scenario also remains possible. If global economic indicators deteriorate, Bitcoin could correct to $70,000 or lower. CryptoQuant analysts allow for a drop in prices down to $56,000 in the second half of 2026, while the most pessimistic estimates even point to levels around $10,000.
Why does Bitcoin maintain its leadership?
Even amid volatility*, BTC continues to remain the dominant asset in the crypto market. The main factors behind its resilience are:
- a relatively soft stance by regulators in key jurisdictions;
- high liquidity* and the largest capitalization among digital assets;
- a high level of security and the Bitcoin network’s resistance to attacks.
* Volatility is the degree of price variability of an asset over a certain period of time; the stronger and more frequent the price fluctuations, the higher the volatility.
* Liquidity is the ability of an asset to be quickly bought or sold on the market at a price close to the market price without significantly affecting its value.
An additional argument in favor of Bitcoin is its Sharpe ratio*, which reaches 2.42. This indicates one of the best risk-to-return ratios on the market, making BTC attractive even for investors with a conservative approach.
* Sharpe ratio is a financial metric used to evaluate the effectiveness of an investment adjusted for risk. It shows how much excess return (above the risk-free rate) an asset or portfolio generates per unit of risk taken. The higher the Sharpe ratio, the more favorable the balance between potential return and volatility: a value above 1 indicates good performance, above 2 — very high performance.
Long-term forecasts: will Bitcoin catch up with gold?
In the long-term horizon, analysts allow that Bitcoin could approach gold in terms of market capitalization and enter the ranks of the world’s largest assets.
According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, by 2035 the price of BTC could reach $1.4 million with an average annual growth of about 30%. At the same time, he already expects prices above $240,000 by 2027.
VanEck experts look even further ahead: by 2050, according to their forecasts, Bitcoin could rise to nearly $3 million, capturing 5–10% of global trade and becoming one of the reserve assets for central banks.
The institutional trend: will growth continue?
As of early 2026, the cumulative net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs amounted to around 600,000 BTC, which is equivalent to approximately $120 billion. If the current dynamics persist, capital inflows could accelerate noticeably in 2026.
Experts note that more and more public companies are considering Bitcoin as part of their corporate reserves. The formation of a clear legal framework in the US and the EU, where BTC is officially classified as a commodity, creates conditions for sustained institutional demand.
Can Bitcoin become a state asset?
If 2024–2025 became a stage of institutional recognition for Bitcoin, then 2026 may open an era of government participation.
In the United States, work continues on the concept of a national crypto reserve, with completion planned for the summer of 2026. If the initiative is approved, Bitcoin could be included on the federal balance sheet, ensuring long-term structural demand for BTC and elevating the asset’s status at the global level.
From “digital” to “programmable” gold
With the development of second-layer solutions, Bitcoin is gradually moving beyond the role of a simple store-of-value instrument. It is becoming part of the decentralized finance ecosystem and global payment infrastructure.
Over the past two years, the total value locked (TVL)* in the Bitcoin ecosystem has increased more than 20-fold — from $307 million to nearly $7 billion. The main contribution to this growth came from the restaking* protocol Babylon and the cross-chain bridge* Lombard, which together account for over 90% of TVL.
* Total Value Locked (TVL) is the total volume of digital assets locked in smart contracts of decentralized protocols, used as an indicator of the scale and activity of an ecosystem.
* Restaking is a mechanism for reusing already staked digital assets to secure and operate additional protocols or services, allowing for increased capital efficiency and additional yield.
* Cross-chain bridge is an infrastructure solution that enables the transfer of digital assets and data between different blockchain networks, allowing users to interact with multiple ecosystems simultaneously.
The Lightning Network contributes to the development of P2P payments and is viewed as an alternative to traditional banking services. In the first half of 2025 alone, the number of crypto payments exceeded 600,000 transactions. Bitcoin accounts for up to 45% of all crypto payments, and although its share may decline over time due to the popularity of stablecoins, the absolute volume of Bitcoin payments continues to grow.
Quantum technologies and risks for Bitcoin
The development of quantum computers remains a topic of debate within the crypto community. In theory, quantum computing could pose a threat to the SHA-256 algorithm, which underpins the security of the Bitcoin network.
However, many specialists believe that quantum progress will not be a threat, but rather a catalyst for the evolution of the Bitcoin protocol. Work is already underway on post-quantum cryptographic solutions, including Lamport signatures and the CRYSTALS-Kyber, Dilithium, FALCON, and SPHINCS+ algorithms.
Experimental blockchains are also being tested with a Proof-of-Quantum-Work consensus mechanism adapted for the use of quantum computing.
Among the possible directions for developing a quantum-resistant network, the following are highlighted:
- implementation of post-quantum cryptography and quantum tokens;
- use of quantum key distribution and random number generation;
- new address and transaction formats;
- mining algorithms oriented toward quantum computing.
Most of these changes can be implemented through soft forks*, without radical changes to the architecture of the Bitcoin network. According to researchers, the crypto industry has a buffer of 5–10 years before quantum threats become a practical reality, and the further development trajectory of Bitcoin will depend on the speed of technological adaptation.
* Soft fork is a backward-compatible blockchain upgrade in which the network receives new rules or functions without a network split or operational downtime: even participants who have not installed the update continue to interact with the network normally.