The term “crypto winter” is increasingly heard in analytical reviews amid Bitcoin’s decline and a massive outflow of capital from the digital asset market. Some experts are confident that the crypto market is entering a prolonged downturn phase, while others view what is happening as a temporary correction before the next growth impulse.
The past few weeks have been a challenging period for the entire crypto industry. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen by more than $1.5 trillion: Bitcoin dropped below $90,000, Ethereum fell below $2,900, and the overall crypto market size has declined from $4.28 trillion in October 2025 to $2.92 trillion, a loss of more than a third of its value. This development has heightened investor concerns that the market may once again enter a “crypto winter”* similar to the periods of 2018 and 2022.
* Crypto winter is a prolonged period of declining cryptocurrency prices that can last from several months to a year or more. Although the onset of a crypto winter is often associated with a decline in Bitcoin, the negative trend affects the entire crypto market: trading activity decreases, pessimistic sentiment prevails, and investors exit en masse.
Factors pointing to a possible crypto winter
Several analysts believe that the prerequisites for a crypto winter have already formed. Crypto expert Doctor Profit, for example, points to the decline in regional bank stocks and shrinking liquidity, viewing these as alarming signals for the entire market.
Earlier, he predicted a drop in Bitcoin below $100,000—and this scenario has materialized: in early December 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, and at the end of November, the BTC price briefly fell below $85,000. According to Doctor Profit, the market has already entered a crypto winter, and the current situation closely resembles the early stages of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Some analysts expect the correction to last at least until spring 2026. Expert John Glover, in turn, allows for the possibility that the bear cycle* could continue until the end of 2026, with Bitcoin falling to $70,000. Experts emphasize that the continuation of cryptocurrency sell-offs after the October crash indicates a shift in market dynamics in favor of the “bears.”
* Bear cycle is a phase of the market cycle in which asset prices steadily decline and sellers (“bears”) dominate buyers. Increased sell-offs, investor caution, and reduced liquidity accompany it.
The head of 10xResearch, Markus Thielen, believes that the scale of the current cycle is comparable to the 2021–2022 crypto winter, when investors sold more than 1 million BTC. At the same time, more than $1.5 trillion has been withdrawn from the digital asset market over just the past few months.
At the same time, Thielen believes that, in the near term, Bitcoin is unlikely to settle firmly below $85,000. Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is more pessimistic: he allows for BTC to fall to $50,000, and in the event of a deepening crisis, even to $10,000.
Alphactral analyst João Wedson expresses a similar view. In his assessment, the probability of a crypto winter remains, and by early 2026, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000. Previously, he predicted the start of a bear cycle in October 2025—after updating the all-time high at $136,200, the BTC price fell by more than 30%.
Wedson also believes that a key trigger for the crypto market could be a recession* in the United States. Historically, crypto winters have often coincided with a general decline in business activity in the global economy.
* Recession is an economic downturn characterized by a contraction in GDP, a decline in business activity, investment, and consumption. It is often accompanied by rising unemployment and deteriorating financial markets.
Altcoins under pressure
During a crypto winter, alternative cryptocurrencies typically fall more sharply than Bitcoin. Some analysts expect Ethereum to lose more than 28% to around $2,140. Pressure is intensifying amid a decline in the NUPL* indicator for long-term holders, which points to weakening investor confidence.
* NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is an on-chain indicator showing the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss among cryptocurrency holders. It is used to assess market sentiment: high values indicate euphoria, while low values point to fear or capitulation among crypto investors.
Another major altcoin, Solana, could drop to $123 in the short term. If leading altcoins decline, lower-cap tokens are likely to experience even deeper corrections, which would become a characteristic sign of a crypto winter.
Why a crypto winter may not materialize
Despite the negative background, some experts remain optimistic and do not consider the current situation the beginning of a full-fledged crypto winter.
For example, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes believes that the correction may end in the near future. One of the key factors he cites is the end of the U.S. government shutdown. In his view, spending from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could boost liquidity and capital inflows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. In such a scenario, according to Hayes, Bitcoin will not fall below $80,000 and could rise to $200,000 or higher in the long term.
Raoul Pal and ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood share this positive outlook. They consider the current pullback a result of the high volatility of the crypto market and see no threat to setting new all-time highs in the future, even if the market temporarily weakens.
WhiteBird expert Yan Pinchuk expects altcoins to continue following Bitcoin. According to his forecasts, ETH and SOL could rise to $3,500 and $170, respectively, under favorable dynamics, as early as December 2025.
Head of research Alice Liu allows for the crypto market to return to a bull phase* as early as February–March 2026. She points to a V-shaped recovery after the fear and greed index* reaches its low—a scenario that more often precedes a new growth cycle rather than a crypto winter.
* Bull phase is a stage of the market cycle in which asset prices rise, demand strengthens, optimistic expectations prevail, and capital inflows increase. It is the opposite of a bear market.
* Fear and Greed Index is a composite indicator that quantitatively reflects the emotional state of participants in the cryptocurrency market. It shows whether fear or greed dominates among investors and is measured on a scale from 0 to 100: low values indicate fear and heightened caution, while high values point to greed and a greater appetite for risk.
Among the factors reducing the likelihood of a prolonged crypto winter, Liu highlights rising liquidity, expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing, and the record capitalization of stablecoins, which has reached $315 billion. In her opinion, this indicates the presence of a significant amount of capital ready to return to the market.