On October 11, 2025, the crypto market experienced an event that was already considered the most significant and dramatic collapse in the history of the industry. Within a few hours, the market capitalization dropped by tens of billions of dollars, and investors lost confidence in the stability of digital assets.
During the night of October 11, a rapid collapse of cryptocurrencies occurred: the price of Bitcoin plunged by $20,000 in an instant, and many altcoins lost more than 60%. This event quickly became known as “Black Saturday.”
Leading causes of the crash and its consequences
The trigger for the cryptocurrency collapse was a statement by U.S. President Donald Trump announcing 100% import tariffs on Chinese goods. The new tariffs were set to take effect on November 1, 2025, causing a sharp surge in global trade tensions.
The stock market reacted instantly with a decline in key indices, and the crypto market crashed soon after. In just a few hours, the total capitalization of digital assets shrank by more than 12%—from $4.14 trillion to $3.69 trillion. Bitcoin fell by nearly 20%, dropping from $122,000 to $102,000.
Toncoin suffered the hardest blow, nearly minus 80%.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 24 points, signaling investor panic, but then started recovering and reached neutral levels.
Key reasons for the cryptocurrency crash
Outflow of institutional capital. Fearing a trade war between the U.S. and China, major players (“whales”) began withdrawing funds from cryptocurrencies in large numbers into fiat.
Mass liquidations of longs*. An excessive volume of open long positions amplified the domino effect. Overnight, more than $19 billion in long positions were liquidated, with BTC and ETH accounting for over 35%. Liquidations affected more than 1.6 million traders.
* Longs (long positions) are trades in which a trader bets on the price increase of an asset. In simple terms, when opening a long, the investor expects the cryptocurrency to rise and plans to profit from the subsequent growth in its price. If the price falls too sharply, the exchange can forcibly close such a position — this is called a long liquidation.
Possible exploit* attack via the Undefined Account function. According to journalist Colin Wu, attackers used a vulnerability that allowed them to use the stablecoinEthena USDe as collateral. About $90 million in USDe was dumped on the market, temporarily causing a loss of peg* — the USDe rate fell below $0.70 before recovering.
* An exploit is a method of taking advantage of a vulnerability in a system or smart contract. In other words, it is a technical technique that allows an attacker to bypass program rules and gain advantages, such as access to funds, changing parameters, or performing actions unavailable to regular users.
* Peg refers to the stablecoin’s price matching its underlying currency. For example, if a stablecoin is pegged to the U.S. dollar, maintaining a peg means it costs exactly $1. Loss of peg (depeg) is a deviation of the stablecoin’s price from its fixed value, such as falling to $0.90 or $0.70.
Depeg of wrapped assets. Several tokens, including bnSOL and wBETH, also lost their pegs to their underlying assets due to low liquidity, resulting in investor losses on Binance of approximately $283 million.
Suspicions of insider trading. Media reported a trader who opened prominent short positions* on BTC and ETH half an hour before the crash and earned about $200 million.
* Short positions (shorts) are trades in which a trader profits from a price decline. When opening a short, the investor essentially bets that the cryptocurrency will become cheaper. If the price indeed falls, the trader profits; if it rises, the trader incurs losses.
Current situation and forecasts
As of October 13, 2025, most major cryptocurrencies had partially recovered after “Black Saturday.” However, the recovery did not affect all altcoins — only some of them returned to previous levels.
Over the week, Bitcoin fell by about 8%, while Ethereum, XRP, and Solana lost 10%, 14%, and 18% respectively. Among the top 20, the most significant declines were recorded by DOGE (−20%), AVAX (−26%), and Sui (−22%). The only asset on this list to show growth was BNB — its price increased by 4%, reaching $1300 and nearing its all-time high again.
A partial market recovery may signal renewed interest from institutional investors. According to a CoinShares report, about $3.2 billion in institutional capital flowed into the crypto industry from October 4 to October 10, 2025. On October 10, the total outflow was only $179 million, of which $179 million came from Ethereum.
Analysts believe that in the coming weeks, Bitcoin will most likely trade in the range of $110,000–$120,000. In the medium term, experts expect BTC to reach $150,000 in the second half of 2026. However, they warn that the recovery may slow down if U.S.–China trade conflicts escalate or if major companies and funds face financial difficulties.
Some economists predict that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin will remain within the $100,000–$115,000 corridor. Further movement will largely depend on the international political situation. In their view, a transition to the $120,000–$130,000 range is possible only if negotiations between Beijing and Washington begin.