About once every four years, or more precisely every 210,000 blocks, a halving occurs in the Bitcoin network — an event during which the reward for miners* for mining a block is reduced by half. Thus, the rate of issuance of new bitcoins is automatically reduced.
* Miners — participants in the Bitcoin network who, using computing power, confirm transactions, ensure blockchain security, and receive rewards in the form of new bitcoins and fees for discovered blocks.
Halving is a built-in deflationary mechanism of the Bitcoin protocol. It was initially designed to gradually reduce the supply of BTC coins and limit the total issuance of the cryptocurrency.
According to data from the Blockchair service, the next halving is expected approximately on April 12, 2028, which is less than 3 years away. The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024.
Does halving affect the price of Bitcoin: expert opinions
Bitcoin’s history shows that approximately 6–12 months after each halving, the BTC price usually reaches a new all-time high (ATH). For example, after the halving on May 11, 2020, bitcoin reached $63,500 as early as April 2021.
Market data also indicate cyclicality: a bearish phase* often precedes a halving, and after the halving the market moves into a growth stage. A reduction in the supply of new coins amid stable or growing demand traditionally has a positive impact on the BTC price.
* Bearish phase — a stage of the market cycle during which asset prices decline for a prolonged period. This period is characterized by a predominance of negative expectations, reduced trading activity, increased selling by investors, and cautious market participant behavior.
Experts emphasize that the halving effect does not manifest immediately. According to Glassnode analysts, the market reaction delay can range from six months to one year and depends on investor sentiment. In addition, the formation of a new ATH is influenced by factors such as the macroeconomic situation, the dynamics of U.S. financial markets, and the level of institutional interest.
After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin updated its maximum much more quickly — in just 5 months. In October 2024, the BTC price exceeded $70,000, and in December, it surpassed the $100,000 level for the first time in history. A significant role was played by the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs*, the growth of institutional investments, and the coming to power in the United States of Donald Trump’s administration, which is loyal to the cryptocurrency market.
* Spot Bitcoin ETFs — exchange-traded investment funds whose shares are backed by real bitcoin and traded on traditional stock exchanges. Such funds allow investors to profit from changes in the BTC price without the need to buy, store, or manage cryptocurrency directly.
The well-known analyst PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow model*, predicted even before the halving that BTC would rise above $100,000 amid reduced issuance. This scenario materialized: as of August 2025, the bitcoin price is about $115,000, and the absolute maximum was recorded in July at $123,000.
* Stock-to-Flow model — an analytical model for valuing an asset based on the ratio of the existing supply of the asset (stock) to its annual production or issuance (flow). In the context of Bitcoin, the model is used to assess BTC scarcity and the expected price dynamics as the issuance rate of new coins decreases.
For comparison, in the previous cycle, Bitcoin first set a new ATH about 7 months after the halving, in December 2020. The growth continued amid the DeFi and NFT boom, and in November 2021, BTC reached a record of $69,000.
The head of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), Michael Saylor, believes that halving increases bitcoin’s scarcity and accelerates its transformation into “digital gold.” According to several analysts, the reduction in BTC inflation after the halving stimulates demand and contributes to price growth.
However, there is also an opposing point of view. Some experts are convinced that the halving effect is already priced in. For example, economist and well-known skeptic Peter Schiff calls the halving a “speculative narrative” and claims that bitcoin's price depends more on macroeconomic conditions than on algorithmic reductions in issuance.
Analysts’ forecasts
Most experts agree that halving, in combination with other factors, has a positive impact on the BTC rate in the long term. However, the extent of this influence remains a subject of debate.
Glassnode analysts believe the importance of the halving for bitcoin's price is overstated and point to the key roles of crypto ETFs and long-term holder behavior. Outlier Ventures expert Jasper De Maere also believes that as the market matures, halving cycles lose their former significance.
Nevertheless, optimistic forecasts remain. TradingView analysts expect BTC to rise to $140,000 as early as August 2025.
An even bolder estimate was presented by Standard Chartered Bank, whose experts allow for a rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Conclusion
Since the 2024 halving, the bitcoin price has more than doubled — from $60,000 to $121,700. In the first half of July, BTC once again updated its all-time high, reaching $123,000.
Halving does indeed affect the price of bitcoin, but only in the presence of sustained demand, institutional interest, and favorable market conditions. By itself, limiting supply cannot ensure price growth without demand for the asset.
A good example is the Yearn Finance (YFI) token. In 2021, it caused significant hype and, for a short time, even surpassed Bitcoin in price. The limited supply of 10,000 tokens played a key role amid the DeFi boom. However, by August 2025, the value of YFI had fallen by more than 94% from its all-time high of $93,400.
This example clearly shows that scarcity is only one of the factors, while sustained demand remains the decisive condition for long-term growth.