Forecasts for 2026 point to a profound transformation of the digital asset market. Analysts at Bitwise and Grayscale agree that the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle model is gradually losing relevance. Institutional investments, the development of crypto infrastructure, and new economic drivers of the industry are coming to the forefront.
Bitwise forecast
Experts from the investment firm Bitwise believe that in 2026, Bitcoin will finally move away from the traditional four-year cycle. In their view, the impact of halving* has significantly weakened after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs* and the large-scale inflow of institutional capital.
* Halving is a scheduled event in the Bitcoin network that occurs approximately once every four years. During a halving, the reward miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain is halved. This means new bitcoins enter the market more slowly, often leading to BTC price growth when demand remains stable or increases.
* Bitcoin ETF is an exchange-traded investment fund whose shares are traded on traditional stock exchanges and allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin price movements without directly buying, storing, or using the cryptocurrency. Such a fund can be structured in different ways, but for investors it functions like a regular exchange-traded security.
Analysts note that the market is entering a new phase in which previous valuation models are becoming less effective. This requires a deeper analysis of macroeconomic and structural factors affecting the crypto industry.
Bitwise expects 2026 to be favorable for the crypto market, with Bitcoin potentially reaching new all-time highs. One of the key growth factors is active BTC purchases by exchange-traded funds: since the launch of ETFs, around 710,000 bitcoins have been acquired, while only 363,000 new coins have been mined.
The company also forecasts a further decline in the volatility* of the leading cryptocurrency. According to their estimates, Bitcoin already demonstrates stability comparable to shares of major technology companies, including Nvidia. At the same time, the correlation between crypto assets and traditional stock indices is decreasing.
* Volatility is a measure of how strongly and how often an asset’s price changes over a specific period of time. High volatility means sharp, frequent price fluctuations, while low volatility indicates smoother, more predictable price movement.
Additionally, Bitwise points to growing investor interest in shares of crypto companies. It is expected that in 2026, such stocks will outperform the traditional technology sector (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet (Google), Amazon).
Grayscale forecast
Grayscale analysts also believe that the era of rigid four-year Bitcoin cycles is coming to an end. According to their forecast, BTC price highs could be updated as early as the first half of 2026.
At the same time, VanEck takes a more conservative stance, believing that cyclicality persists. Nevertheless, VanEck agrees with expectations of declining volatility in Bitcoin and major altcoins, driven by increasing institutional participation.
Grayscale emphasizes that investor interest extends not only to Bitcoin but also to other digital assets that serve as alternatives to fiat currencies*. Rising U.S. government debt and the risk of dollar devaluation are stimulating demand for decentralized, transparent instruments such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash.
* Fiat currencies are national monetary units issued by governments and central banks whose value is not backed by physical assets (such as gold) but is based on trust in a country’s economy and financial system. These include the U.S. dollar, euro, yen, and others.
In addition, Grayscale expects increased institutional demand for infrastructure and yield-generating projects. Beyond base blockchains, major players are paying attention to financial applications, including the crypto derivatives* platform Hyperliquid and the token launch service Pump.fun.
* Crypto derivatives are financial instruments whose value depends on the price of a cryptocurrency or another digital asset. Crypto derivatives allow investors to trade expectations of market growth or decline without directly purchasing the underlying cryptocurrency. These instruments include futures, options, and perpetual contracts.
Among infrastructure solutions, analysts highlight the Sui and Near Protocol projects. These ecosystems are viewed as a promising foundation for building decentralized applications—from micropayments and gaming services to high-load AI platforms.
Grayscale places particular emphasis on the real-world asset (RWA)* tokenization sector. According to the company’s forecast, the segment may enter a phase of active growth in 2026, with its volume potentially increasing by a thousand times by 2030.
* RWA (Real World Assets) are real assets from the traditional economy represented and used in the digital blockchain environment. These include real estate, securities, debt instruments, and commodities that can be represented digitally and participate in the crypto economy.
Further growth in interest toward privacy-focused cryptocurrencies is also expected. After significant growth in Zcash and Monero in 2025, analysts do not rule out the trend continuing in 2026.
Cryptocurrency regulation and the stablecoin market
Experts are paying close attention to the CLARITY ACT, a bill aimed at regulating the stablecoin market. The document is expected to be adopted in 2026.
Grayscale believes that the adoption of the CLARITY ACT will have a positive impact on the crypto market by firmly establishing digital assets within the U.S. legal framework. Bitwise analysts also note that an improved regulatory environment could become one of the factors driving Bitcoin’s growth.
According to forecasts, if the law is adopted, tokens in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems may also reach new highs. These networks play a key role in stablecoin operations and have the highest liquidity in this segment.
At the same time, some analysts express concern about possible negative consequences of the CLARITY ACT for developing countries. There is a risk that governments of such states may blame stablecoins for exacerbating currency problems.
In countries with high inflation and limited access to banking services, stablecoins already serve as an alternative to national currencies. The main reason for their use remains the depreciation of local monetary units. According to analysts’ forecasts, this trend may intensify in 2026, while the role of stablecoins in international and retail payments could grow significantly.