The sharp drop in Toncoin’s value following the October 10 events, known as “Black Saturday,” became one of the most discussed episodes in the crypto market. TON’s collapse was caused by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty, intensified by panic selling, and several internal ecosystem issues — all of which highlight the vulnerability of even large crypto projects.
Global crypto market crash on October 10, 2025
On October 10, 2025, the crypto market experienced its most significant decline of the year: within just a few hours, positions worth around $20 billion were liquidated. The total market capitalization of digital assets decreased by more than 12% — from $4.14 billion to $3.69 billion.
The trigger for the collapse was an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump about new import tariffs on Chinese goods. These measures are scheduled to take effect on November 1, 2025, but they had already triggered a wave of uncertainty in the financial markets in October.
Why Did Toncoin fall stronger than other tokens?
Amid the broader crash, altcoins* proved the most vulnerable — especially those that lagged behind Bitcoin in capitalization and liquidity*. TON became one of the top underperformers of the day:
- on the largest crypto exchange, Binance, the price dropped by more than half, from $2.7 to $1.2;
- TON’s market capitalization fell to $4.7 billion;
- on low-liquidity exchanges, the price temporarily dropped below $1.
This happened despite TON leading the growth charts in 2024 and ranking among the largest blockchains; however, by autumn 2025, it had fallen out of the top 20, with its market cap decreasing from a peak of $24 billion to $5.5 billion.
*Altcoins — any cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin. These include all alternative digital assets — from large projects like Ethereum to small tokens.
*Liquidity — the ability to quickly buy or sell a crypto asset without significantly affecting its price. The higher the liquidity, the easier it is to execute trades without large price movements.
Main reasons for Toncoin’s (TON) decline
Capital outflow due to political uncertainty
The announcement of new tariffs and the rise in geopolitical tensions forced investors to shift funds from risky assets into safe instruments — such as stablecoins, the U.S. dollar, and government bonds. This accelerated the outflow of capital, specifically from altcoins.
Dominance of retail investors
A significant portion of TON holders are regular Telegram users who lack risk-management strategies. Their mass emotional selling, triggered by the news, deepened the decline and triggered large-scale position liquidations.
Increase in short positions by institutions
Significant funds and professional traders expecting a further decline aggressively opened short positions* on TON, adding additional pressure to the price and accelerating the downward movement.
*Short positions — trades where a trader bets on the price of an asset falling, selling it in advance to repurchase it cheaper later and profit from the difference.
“Domino effect”
The stock market decline triggered a chain reaction — a drop in confidence in risky assets, after which the crypto market almost simultaneously mirrored the negative dynamics of equities.
Low liquidity during a surge in trading volume
When TON sales suddenly surged, the available volume in order books* proved insufficient: large market orders pushed the price sharply downward, making TON’s decline even more dramatic.
*Order books — lists of all current buy and sell orders on an exchange, sorted by price; they show how much traders are willing to buy or sell at each price level.
Failures in the TON ecosystem
Network overload caused slower transactions, wallet delays, and service errors, creating instability among users and pushing them toward panic selling.
Dependence on Telegram
The TON ecosystem is tightly integrated with the messenger’s infrastructure, so even brief issues with Telegram or the built-in Wallet app lead to temporary inaccessibility of wallets for part of the audience, intensifying panic and provoking mass TON sell-offs.
Declining network activity as a key reason for TON’s fall
Even before the October crash, Toncoin had been showing reduced user activity. Since late 2024, network statistics have been deteriorating. According to Token Terminal:
- the number of active addresses fell from 1.6 million to 95,000,
- a decline of nearly 17 times,
- TON dropped out of the top 20 blockchains by activity.
Decreasing user engagement is a key factor undermining the value of a blockchain and explains why Toncoin proved so vulnerable.
What to expect next: risks and growth drivers for Toncoin
Potential negative scenarios
If the new U.S. tariffs indeed take effect on November 1, the market may again come under severe pressure. Toncoin’s dynamics will continue to depend on Federal Reserve decisions regarding interest rates, U.S. inflation levels, and overall sentiment in global stock markets. If user activity on the TON network continues to decline, it will add further downward pressure and may further weaken the token.
Positive factors supporting TON
Despite current challenges, the TON ecosystem still has several substantial advantages. The project remains tightly integrated with Telegram, which has over 900 million users, providing massive potential reach.
Development of the Wallet app continues, with the expansion of services within the ecosystem and the implementation of technological initiatives, including the Tolk and Tact programming languages, to further scale.
Additional support comes from increasing liquidity, particularly the launch of USDT on the TON blockchain.
A significant factor is also institutional backing — Verb Technology has allocated $588 million to TON reserves. According to analysts, further strengthening of TON Strategy reserves and expansion of payment tools form the foundation for the project’s long-term recovery.